Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
