Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
